On Sun, 14 May 2006 15:38:33 -0700, Mike Hore wrote
(in article <C08DE680.6F793%mike.hore@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>):
> Did you mean Poisson, or was that deliberate? Ummm... I'd think that
> any system that aims to predict random numbers would be "poison" -- our
> universe just doesn't seem to work that way ;-
Yes, but I thought the misspelling looked appropriate :-)
There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel and the payout is 35 to one.
My calculations (and simulations) showed a 50% chance of a given number
being
a winner within the first 26 spins. The break-even point is 35 spins.
The problem is twofold. First, there is an infinitly long tail to the
curve
(according to the distribution you are most likely to hit on the first
spin.
Does this mean you should pick a new number each time? No, but it can get
confusing). Second and rather insignificant, I think the Poisson in this
case
is an approximation to a binomial distribution where with large numbers of
trials the approximation is very close.
I tried it out Friday and made $200 into $6,000 in about 5 hours and
reduced
it back to $400 on Saturday! Darn! I could have had a quad G5 and Grid
Mathematica with a couple thousand left over!
As a friend from Stanford said, "If you are teaching physics and playing
roulette you should be hospitalized!"
-- Charlie
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